"The Pulse" --#82 / Inflation Up, Rates Down?

Recruiting Timeline:

Banking:

Where We’re At:

• SA 2026: FT Partners, Cantor Fitzgerald, Qatalyst, and 2 others opened their summer 2026 apps. 24 firms are actively recruiting for summer 2026 positions with many January deadlines. About 80% of SA 2026 apps will open before March

New SA 2026 Applications:

• Qatalyst: Elite tech-focused boutique (SA 2026)

• FT Partners: Fintech-focused boutique (SA 2026)

• Cantor Fitzgerald: Strong MM (SA 2026)

• MUFG: Large Japanese bank (SA 2026)

• Santander: Spanish bank, growing U.S. team (SA 2026)

See below to gain access to our premium database, updated weekly, which houses the application processes for over 300+ banks/consulting/buyside firms! Gain an edge over everyone else by not having to spend countless hours tracking applications and deadlines.

Consulting:

Where We’re At:

• 54 SA 2025 applications have been released along with 62 FT 2025 apps. Only boutique firms still have applications open so lock up those offers!

• 2026 Recruiting has started but is in the very early days. There are 2 open applications–we don’t expect additional apps to open for a few months.

SA 2025 released apps:

• Activate Inc - Summer Business Analyst (SA 2025)

FT 2025 released apps:

• Activate Inc, tech/internet focus - Business Analyst (FT 2025)

• Graph Strategy, PE due diligence focus - Associate (FT 2025)

• Sterling Associates, primarily market research for PE - Associate (FT 2025)

• Cofactor Group, life sciences focus - Associate Consultant (FT 2025)

Apply ASAP if you’re interested!

Buyside:

Where We’re At:

• SA 2026: Oak Hill Advisors and Capital Southwest Corporation announced their SA 2026 applications. Currently 17 buyside firms are recruiting for SA 2026 seats 

New SA 2026 released apps:

• Oak Hill Advisors: Large credit shop (SA 2026)

• Capital Southwest Corporation: Private credit intern (SA 2026)

The database is updated weekly and contains 300+ Investment Banking and Consulting internships/full-time positions along with:

• Interview tips for specific companies

• Interview prep material

• Applications and deadlines linked so that you can apply with one click

• Insider information about the application process

• Professionals to network with

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Students we have been helping have already landed roles at Blackstone, Goldman, J.P. Morgan, Jefferies, Citi, and Solomon.

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Market Update:

100bps of Rate Cuts in 2024, Yet Inflation is Back on the Rise

The FED cut again yielding 100bps of cuts for 2024. I don’t want to gas myself up too much, but over a year ago we called for 75-100bps of cuts in 2024 ("The Pulse" --#28 and "The Pulse" --#29).

^if your Mom or Dad runs a macro fund tell him to hire me: [email protected]. I’m only asking for TC of $350K so I can move to the West Village.

Next week, I’ll write a piece covering The Pulse’s biggest Ws and Ls of our 2024 forecasting—stay tuned.

Ok, back to this week’s banter:

What was unique about the FED’s recent cut is that they cut amidst rising inflation. This violates their ‘data-dependent’ mindset and it wasn’t a great look for Jerome Powell to state that making decisions right now feels like “walking into a dark room filled with furniture.”

When inflation rises, rates are typically hiked or left unchanged—not cut!

As you can see, both the CPI and PCE indices have ironically kicked up since the first 50bps cut in September. CPI stood at 2.7% in November and the PCE at 2.4%.

So, what’s going on here?

1. The FED felt that rates were too restrictive despite increased inflation

2. Action brings action—people got excited and spent ahead of good times

Rates are still elevated at 4.25-4.50% that’s a 300bps increase compared to 2.5 years ago. Taking this into perspective, a 25bps cut was acceptable despite the moderate increase in inflation. You must also remember, 2.5 years ago inflation was 7-9%!

Regarding liquidity, my best example to show their restrictiveness is that 60%+ of homeowners have a sub-4% mortgage. To encourage any movement in the mortgage markets, we are going to need rates below 4%.

I’m not sure what the magic number is to see a HUGE jump in borrowing, but we will certainly see additional cuts in 2025 as long as inflation doesn’t blow out too much wider or unemployment jacks up materially.

Picking apart the rise in inflation, I mean the handwriting was on the wall:

• Entering the holiday spending season

• Consistent wage appreciation at the consumer level

• Goods deflation really had no more room to run (still pretty low, big risk IMO)

• Unemployment rate is strong at 4.2%

People freaked out on Wednesday because the FED demonstrated uncertainty. This has been a very transparent FED and they’ll continue to be data dependent. As always, the forecasters started buggin and are now predicting much greater inflation in 2025 and far fewer rate cuts.

I want to leave you with the below graph, you tell me if the forecasters are ever right.

Forecasters fuckin leap to conclusions on the smallest hint of uncertainty.

Disclosure: Nothing written here is financial advice or should be used for investment decisions.

BBs vs. EBs. MBB vs. Big 4. Mega Fund vs. MM. What are the differences?

Heavily requested topic to breakdown everything you need to know about the different types of firms (oldie, but goodie). This week, we will discuss the core components of different firm classifications across banking, consulting, and the buyside.

Starting with banking.

BB=Bulge Bracket. EB=Elite Boutique. We actually posted about this on our LinkedIn: BB vs. EB

Characteristics of a BB:

• Examples: JPM, Citi, GS, BofA, Wells Fargo, etc

• Actively uses its balance sheet to lend money

• Work on the largest deals 

• Many different departments and roles outside of just investment banking

• They pay well, but not great. Starting salary ~$100-$115k. Bonus ~40-80%.

• More people = better WLB (marginally better by ~10-15 hours/week)

• Interview processes are less technical, but interviews are harder to get than EBs

• Great exit opportunities to PE/VC/Credit. Also, good exit opps outside of finance given the brand name

• Some BBs like JPM, have a stickier culture where fewer analysts leave the firm in search of “greener” pastures

Characteristics of an EB:

• Examples: Evercore, Moelis, PJT, Perella Weinberg, etc

• Mostly specialize in pure-play investment banking. Strictly advisory services

• Heavily index on product roles like M&A or Restructuring (Restructuring is significantly better at EBs than BBs)

• Smaller deals, leaner deal teams. Arguably better exposure

• Better pay than BBs. Starting salary $110-$130k. Bonus ~50-100%.

• Less people = shittier WLB. These guys work around the clock, 7 days a week ngl

• Interview processes are more technical and interviews can be easier to get if you went to a target school

• Better exit opportunities within finance, especially to PE. Less opportunities outside of finance

• Typically a 2-year culture at the analyst level. Most people leave

Now, onto consulting.

MBB = McKinsey, BCG, and Bain. Big 4 = Deloitte, EY, PWC, and KPMG

Characteristics of MBB:

• Examples: Bain, BCG, and McKinsey

• The most sought-after firms to work for within management consulting

• Pure strategy consulting firms that serve top-tier, large clients

• Leaner teams with a more collegial environment

• Higher starting salary ~$100-$140k (inclusive of bonus). McKinsey is a strong outlier with higher pay even amongst the MBB

• Shittier WLB (still far better than banking)

• Interviews are much more technical / case-heavy

• Exit opportunities are better

Characteristics of Big 4:

• Examples: PWC, EY, Deloitte, and KPMG

• Strong management consulting programs, but there are many other departments and roles outside of consulting

• Also work alongside large clients within the Fortune 500

• Larger teams, arguably worse exposure

• Starting salary ~$75-$100k (inclusive of bonus). KPMG is an outlier and pays like shit

• Better WLB because there are more people (can be a 40-50 hour/week job)

• Interviews are less technical and less competitive

• Exit opportunities are worse than MBB

Now, onto the buyside.

For the sake of simplicity, we are only discussing PE.

Mega Fund = AUM of $100bn+ and typically work on deals of $1bn+.

MM = Middle-Market. Broad term to describe firms with less than $100bn AUM. Fund size usually $10-$50bn. Deal size $50-$500mm.

Mega-Fund:

• Examples: KKR, Blackstone, Apollo, Warburg Pincus, etc

• Work on the largest transactions with much larger teams

• Huge fund size = big transactions

• Typically many other roles available outside of PE (credit, infrastructure, insurance)

• Worse exposure and very difficult to work your way up the ladder given concentration of upper-middle management (some are strictly 2-year associate programs)

• Better pay. Likely similar to EB pay for junior analysts. Admittedly, I only have numbers for the associate level. Apollo is known to be an outlier paying far above market

• Known to be banking 2.0. Shitty WLB

• Interviews can be super sweaty and always have a modeling exercise

• Exit opportunities can be more concentrated than banking because of specialization and worse brand name compared to BB

Middle Market:

• Examples: Alpine Investors, Trinity Hunt Partners, Spectrum Equity, Orion, etc

• Smaller transactions, smaller teams, and a smaller fund size

• Usually better exposure and more responsibility at the junior level

• Typically a focus on a particular asset class (infrastructure, tech, healthcare, etc)

• Typically a focus on a particular type of investing (PE-only, credit-only, distressed debt only)

• More mobility regarding promotion

• Typically worse pay then mega-funds. However, some middle-market funds will pay far above market

• Better WLB (case-dependent)

• Interviews are either super sweaty with complex modeling or sometimes much easier than banking with a heavy behavioral focus

• Exit opportunities highly constrained to other roles within finance given lack of brand name. Working at a portco is common

Going Forward:

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Please reach out to us with any questions about recruiting or if you’re interested in meeting the team! ([email protected])

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“The Pulse” #82