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Market Update:

Seasonality in Business

For many businesses, Q2 is very different from Q4. Some small businesses or entities make their entire year in only a few months. Think about snow plowing or Mariah Carey every time December rolls around.

Mariah Carey is estimated to earn a disgusting $2.6 million per year from royalties generated by this song alone. The song was released in 1994….long before many of us were even born.

I bet she has no idea how to even spend all of that money. Talk about passive income.

Anyways, seasonality is a very real factor that influences businesses of all sizes worldwide. As an investor or analyst, you want to make sure that seasonality is not clouding your vision of the underlying business.

For these seasonal enterprises, it’s critical to analyze LTM (last twelve months) metrics when comparing historical performance or when spreading comps. Let’s look at Amazon together to visualize seasonality, what you should compare, and what you shouldn’t.

I’ll say it again. ILAI. I LOVE AI.

Copilot whipped this shit up in 3 seconds. Even an old head like me who is nice in the sheets would need a good 5-10 mins to spread these by hand. A human intern would probably take 6 fucking hours to put something like this together.

I digress. Amazon is a very seasonal business. They over-perform in Q4 as the entire world buys gifts for the holidays.

Here is what you should compare:

Here is what you shouldn’t compare:

It’s all about smoothing the numbers to get a complete view of business performance. You’d be an idiot to compare a company like Amazon quarter to quarter because it’s a seasonal business. It makes substantially more money from people October through December when holiday shopping is in full force vs. January through March when everyone is skiing or depressed.

Now, LTM comparisons work because you’re capturing a full years’ performance (every single season). However, I’d still urge you to just compare something like LTM 1Q22 with LTM 1Q23 vs. LTM 1Q22 with LTM 2Q22. The reason being is that you’re now playing with the concept of annual variance—a business may only expect to grow 5% YoY from Q1-Q1, but 7% from Q2-Q2.

^plus, nobody else does that. Oddball metrics don’t go very far in finance. Alpha is found by analyzing standardized metrics in a different way.

Disclosure: Nothing written here is financial advice or should be used for investment decisions.

Merger Math


Problem:

Company A (21x PE multiple) buys Company B (15x PE multiple). Is this transaction accretive or dilutive?

^PE is Price / Earnings for the slow folks.

Before jumping into an answer, I first need to ask how this transaction is financed. What is the mix of cash, debt, and equity to fuel the purchase?

In this case, let’s say it’s an all-stock transaction. Great, I immediately know that this is an accretive transaction.

If the acquiror’s equity is “more expensive” than the target’s equity (ex: 21x PE > 15x PE), than this is accretive for the acquiror when financing the transaction with 100% equity since Company A is effectively buying earnings at a discount to what its own earnings trade at.

Imagine if you could buy a dollar for only 50 cents. That’s essentially what’s happening here.

Don’t get it twisted, this absolutely does not apply if there is a true financing mix (ex: 50% debt, 50% equity). I’ll review this nuance next week.

For now, if BIG PE buys SMALL PE, the transaction is accretive. If SMALL PE buys BIG PE, it’s dilutive.

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“The Pulse” #132